Why many Swedes don’t like the German energy transition

Wind turbines lined in the sea in northern Europe.
Energy & Infrastructure

The energy transition (Energiewende) is seen as an essential step towards a climate-neutral future in Germany. But not all of its European neighbors view the country's accelerated coal and nuclear phase-out in an exclusively positive light. The German energy transition is driving up electricity prices in countries like Sweden, which have actually long since taken the step toward a low-cost, climate-neutral power supply.

Alexander Beyer
Alexander Beyer
Stefan Buelow
Stefan Buelow
With a share of over 90%, Sweden is considered one of the pioneers of climate-neutral power generation. The share of renewable energies in Germany has also increased rapidly in recent years, covering almost 45% of total electricity demand in 2020. However, while the Swedish energy production from hydroelectric and nuclear power can provide a constant base load, the German energy transition based on solar and wind power is subject to strong fluctuations depending on environmental influences.
Sweden energy infrastructure image

With the shutdown of fossil fuels, these fluctuations can no longer be balanced out at all times and Germany is dependent on imports from other European countries to cover its electricity requirements.

How European electricity markets influence each other

Since the liberalization of the power markets at the latest, electricity in Europe has been regarded as a commodity that can be freely traded on the national and international power exchanges. The price is essentially determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Power producers place hourly bids on the exchanges to determine the amount of electricity they can make available for the hour in question and at what price. According to the merit order principle, the offers are then sorted according to their variable costs, with the cheapest being awarded first until the demand for electricity is met for that hour. The most expensive bid that is just needed to meet the electricity demand determines the market clearing price. All winning bids for that hour are settled at the market clearing price and remunerated accordingly. While renewable energies such as wind and solar energy are characterized by particularly low variable costs, these are especially high for fossil fuels. Local differences in supply and demand can be automatically balanced between individual regions depending on the available transmission capacity. If the volatile electricity production in Germany is therefore currently not sufficient to meet its demand, this must automatically be met by available capacities in Sweden. While Sweden possesses a reliable renewable power supply for its own needs and could benefit from their low production costs, meeting Germany’s volatile electricity demand still required the use of cost-intensive production methods. These increase the price for which all Swedish electricity production is traded via the market clearing principle.

Sweden energy infrastructure image
Whereas Swedish electricity producers should be pleased with the increased power exports to Germany, Swedish consumers and industry will have to pay dearly for the German energy transition in some cases. The 26.05.2023 price curves from Germany, southern Sweden and northern Sweden exemplify the impact of high German prices on southern Sweden compared to northern Sweden.
Sweden energy infrastructure image
The volatility problem of the German energy transition illustrates that more needs to be done for a transition to a climate-neutral future than just switching off fossil and nuclear fuels. Not only the maximum possible output of renewable energies is responsible for the success of the energy transition, but also ensuring a permanent and stable power supply. The volatility problem of renewable energies can potentially be solved via the development of large-scale electricity storage solutions and intelligent algorithms that use data-based, targeted control of production and demand via innovative technologies such as smart meters and demand-side response. An entire industry is in upheaval, opening up potential for new, data-driven business models. Statista has in-depth experience in identifying and scaling data-driven business models as well as strategy development in the energy industry - feel free to contact us if you want to know how we can help you too.

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